We introduce Complexity as Advantage (CAA), a framework that defines the complexity of a system relative to a family of observers. Instead of measuring complexity as an intrinsic property, we evaluate how much predictive regret a system induces for different observers attempting to model it. A system is complex when it is easy for some observers and hard for others, creating an information advantage. We show that this formulation unifies several notions of emergent behavior, including multiscale entropy, predictive information, and observer-dependent structure. The framework suggests that "interesting" systems are those positioned to create differentiated regret across observers, providing a quantitative grounding for why complexity can be functionally valuable. We demonstrate the idea through simple dynamical models and discuss implications for learning, evolution, and artificial agents.

Human language is a unique form of communication in the natural world, distinguished by its structured nature. Most fundamentally, it is systematic, meaning that signals can be broken down into component parts that are individually meaningful -- roughly, words -- which are combined in a regular way to form sentences. Furthermore, the way in which these parts are combined maintains a kind of locality: words are usually concatenated together, and they form contiguous phrases, keeping related parts of sentences close to each other. We address the challenge of understanding how these basic properties of language arise from broader principles of efficient communication under information processing constraints. Here we show that natural-language-like systematicity arises from minimization of excess entropy, a measure of statistical complexity that represents the minimum amount of information necessary for predicting the future of a sequence based on its past. In simulations, we show that codes that minimize excess entropy factorize their source distributions into approximately independent components, and then express those components systematically and locally. Next, in a series of massively cross-linguistic corpus studies, we show that human languages are structured to have low excess entropy at the level of phonology, morphology, syntax, and semantics. Our result suggests that human language performs a sequential generalization of Independent Components Analysis on the statistical distribution over meanings that need to be expressed. It establishes a link between the statistical and algebraic structure of human language, and reinforces the idea that the structure of human language may have evolved to minimize cognitive load while maximizing communicative expressiveness.

A major driver of AI products today is the fact that new skills emerge in language models when their parameter set and training corpora are scaled up. This phenomenon is poorly understood, and a mechanistic explanation via mathematical analysis of gradient-based training seems difficult. The current paper takes a different approach, analysing emergence using the famous (and empirical) Scaling Laws of LLMs and a simple statistical framework. Contributions include: (a) A statistical framework that relates cross-entropy loss of LLMs to competence on the basic skills that underlie language tasks. (b) Mathematical analysis showing that the Scaling Laws imply a strong form of inductive bias that allows the pre-trained model to learn very efficiently. We informally call this {\em slingshot generalization} since naively viewed it appears to give competence levels at skills that violate usual generalization theory. (c) A key example of slingshot generalization, that competence at executing tasks involving $k$-tuples of skills emerges essentially at the same scaling and same rate as competence on the elementary skills themselves.

One of the most fundamental questions one can ask about a pair of random variables X and Y is the value of their mutual information. Unfortunately, this task is often stymied by the extremely large dimension of the variables. We might hope to replace each variable by a lower-dimensional representation that preserves the relationship with the other variable. The theoretically ideal implementation is the use of minimal sufficient statistics, where it is well-known that either X or Y can be replaced by their minimal sufficient statistic about the other while preserving the mutual information. While intuitively reasonable, it is not obvious or straightforward that both variables can be replaced simultaneously. We demonstrate that this is in fact possible: the information X's minimal sufficient statistic preserves about Y is exactly the information that Y's minimal sufficient statistic preserves about X. As an important corollary, we consider the case where one variable is a stochastic process' past and the other its future and the present is viewed as a memoryful channel. In this case, the mutual information is the channel transmission rate between the channel's effective states. That is, the past-future mutual information (the excess entropy) is the amount of information about the future that can be predicted using the past. Translating our result about minimal sufficient statistics, this is equivalent to the mutual information between the forward- and reverse-time causal states of computational mechanics. We close by discussing multivariate extensions to this use of minimal sufficient statistics.

Truly complex stochastic processes--the infinitary processes [1] whose mutual information between past and future diverges--arise in many physical and biological systems [2-5], such as those in critical states. They are implicated in many natural phenomena, from the geophysics of earthquakes [6] and physiological measurements of neural avalanches [7] to semantics in natural language [8] and cascading failure in power transmission grids [9]. Their apparent infinite memory makes empirical estimation and modeling particularly challenging. The difficulty is reflected in the computational complexity of inference [10]: the resources required to predict and model them diverge in sample size, in memory for storing model parameters, and in memory required for prediction. Resource scaling, an analog of the venerable technique of finite-size scaling in statistical mechanics, suggests that for infinitary processes we look for statistical signatures that track divergences. Since resource divergences are sensitive to a process's inherent randomness and organization, one hopes that their scaling forms are uniquely revealing indicators of process complexity and can guide the selection of appropriate models. To date, though, there are few tractable constructions with which to explore possible general relationships between prediction, complexity, and learning for infinitary processes.